The fourth UFC event in six days takes place on Wednesday night/Thursday morning and Will Burns is back after hammering home major profits over the weekend in the past three cards. And remember folks, anything can happen in the cage.
Wednesday 13th July 2016
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 91
Denny Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD.
LOUIS SMOLKA (10-1) v BEN NYUGEN (16-5)
Ben Nyugen is on a nine-fight winning streak and I honestly feel if this stays on the feet, Nyugen is a far superior striker and will defeat Louis Smolka via KO by at the most, the second round. If this goes to the ground, Nyugen again has the advantage. Smolka has a poor wrestling game, takedown defense is not strong and he rarely tries to go for takedown on the offense.
Nyugen has experienced problems with his chin but his last defeat was in 2011 and I feel he will overpower Smolka in a stand-up contest. On the ground, Nyugen has ability with submissions, including a win last time out against Ryan Benoit in Australia with a rear-naked choke.
His opponent Smolka has some victories in his time in the UFC (Won 4, Lost 1) however, these numbers are not impressive as they look. In his debut back in January 2014, he managed a decision victory against Alp Ozkilic, due to the Turkish fighter looking very tired after just one round. Nyugen has also experienced victory against Ozkilic, knocking him out in round one.
Next up for Smolka, he tasted his first and only defeat against Chris Cariaso, again another three-rounder. This fight showed major weaknesses in Smolka’s takedown game. He couldn’t get Cariaso down, and couldn’t stop being took to the ground throughout. He then moved on a win against Richie Vaculik, who was dominant for two rounds on the feet until he walked into a side kick and was subsquently beaten by Smolka.
He then defeated two Irishmen in Neil Seery and Paddy Holohan. Seery rocked Smolka a few times and kept looking for submissions from the bottom, looked bad and lost the decision. Against Holohan, Smolka found himself losing the fight again on the feet and after the Irish fighter attempted a takedown, he found himself locked into a submission to give Smolka the win.
I find it very hard to see Smolka getting his 11th win here and it is Nyugen’s fight to lose. I personally think Nyugen has the best striking game that Smolka has ever faced and this will prove to hand him the win tonight.
TIP: Nyugen to win (1.83 at SportingBet)
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Josh Samman to win (1.45)
Sam Alvey to win (1.40)
Lauren Murphy to win (1.53)