UFC 200 Betting Tips & The Monster Acca

The big one is here!!! UFC 200 takes place on Saturday night/Sunday morning and looks to be the biggest event in the company’s history. Will Burns previews this monster card and provides some bank building tips.

Sunday 10th July 2016

UFC 200

MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada.

160709 - Brock Lesnar

BROCK LESNAR (5-3) vs. MARK HUNT (12-10-1)

(Heavyweight Division)

The beast is back! Former UFC Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar is back in the octagon and he wants redemption. The big man from Minnesota left the MMA game in December 2011 after suffering a defeat to Alistair Overeem but it was revealed that Lesnar was struggling with a stomach disease called diverticulitis.

Well he claims to be fully fit now and will face New Zealand knockout artist Mark Hunt on Sunday morning. Hunt is favoured by the bookmakers but I fail to see him winning this contest. Hunt has struggled with guys like Lesnar before, but they were a lot smaller than the former Division 1 heavyweight champion wrestler. Hunt is now 42-years-old and apart from two wins against heavyweights on the decline in their career, Frank Mir and Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva, he has only experienced one decent win against Roy Nelson, in his last seven fights.

Brock Lesnar is a tremendous athlete and needs his gloves specially made to fit his giant ham hock-like hands. His stand-up is weaker than Hunt but his takedowns are far superior. Hunt has virtually no takedown defense in his arsenal and this has been proven time and time again with weaker guys taking him down.

If Hunt wants to land punches on Lesnar, due to Lesnar’s nine inch reach advantage, he will have to get close to him. If he does land, Lesnar will look to shoot for a takedown. Repeat this for three rounds and I see Lesnar winning on his return. However, I feel that Lesnar’s ground and pound will be good enough to get an early finish due to stoppage, if not a decision win beckons.

Due to Jon Jones been a naughty boy for what seems the umpteen time, this fight has been moved up to a higher position on the card – which gives both guys that extra incentive to end the night on top. This should be a spectacle.

TIP: Brock Lesnar to win (2.50 at Bet365)

160709 - Jose Aldo

JOSE ALDO (25-2) vs. FRANKIE EDGAR (20-4)

(Interim Featherweight Championship)

Just what feels a short time ago, Jose Aldo was touted as the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. Then came a devastating 13-second knockout loss to Conor McGregor and pundits/experts alike diminished those thoughts immediately.

Anyone following Aldo since that defeat knows he is obsessed with a rematch and he is tunnel-visioning on that fight. So I don’t think you can question mentally that he will be back to his best in this fight. However, even if he is, he’s in for a real fight against Frankie Edgar. Aldo has mentioned lately the dreaded retirement word which makes me believe his head in this sport, may have gone.

Frankie Edgar has not come close to losing at the 145 weight since he actually lost the first Aldo fight back in February 2013 so do we need to mention his motivation to claim this fight? In addition, Edgar’s striking has looked very sharp as of late and the string of talent in the division he has defeated is very impressive: Charles Oliveira, B.J. Penn, Cub Swanson, Urijah Faber and Chad Mendes.

On the other hand, Aldo is a much superior grappler, great takedown defense and has great speed in his hands and feet. And I fail to see Edgar get Aldo down so I see this fight going five rounds of Aldo marking him up with the jab. I think the reputation that he once had will reappear but I feel on Saturday he reminds everyone why he was once touted as the best pound-for-pound at one time.

This is definitely a tough one to call so I suggest backing Aldo to win as a single at evens with Bet365.

TIP: Jose Aldo to win (2.00 at Bet365)

Monster Acca

Here it is! The Monster Acca… For every big UFC event I select at least four fight picks to try and give us the monster profit. Remember, small stakes only folks with this paying over 16/1.

First off, after yet another Jon Jones pullout due to a drugs suspension, Anderson Silva stands in on TWO days notice to fight Daniel Cormier. Coming off recent gallbladder surgery, Silva will be defeated by Cormier within the three rounds (1.61 at Bet365).

After the unlikely submission loss to Bryan Barbarena, where Sage Northcutt appeared to be incapable of defending a choke that came from an awful position that he should have easily escaped – the UFC have booked Northcutt in what looks an easy fight against Enrique Marin. None of Northcutt’s past seven wins have gone to the decision and I don’t see this going the full rounds either (1.80 at Bet365).

Coming off a tough decision championship-loss to Dominick Cruz that could have gone either way, T.J Dillashaw looks to bounce back against Rafael Assuncao. This will not be a walk over for Dillashaw but I see a decision win coming his way (1.85 at Bet365).

My last pick is a tough one to call but I see Johny Hendricks gaining the win over Kelvin Gastelum. Despite a loss to Stephen Thompson and a close title-fight defeat against Robbie Lawler, Hendricks remains a powerful-handed wrestler who is relentless absorbing shots and moving forward. In all honestly, Gastelum shares similarities with Hendricks with the key difference being that ‘Big Rigg’ is more polished in his striking and wrestling. I don’t see him cracking Gastelum’s cast-iron chin and if the fight stays standing, I think it will – Hendricks will take the decision win (3.20 at Bet365).

Daniel Cormier to win via KO, TKO, DQ or Submission (1.61)

Sage Northcutt to win via KO, TKO, DQ or Submission (1.80)

T.J. Dillashaw to win via decision (1.85)

Johny Hendricks to win via decision (3.20) 

TIP: Four-Time Acca (17.21 at Bet365)

Will Burns

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