Thursday night/Friday morning sees the opening of International Fight Week in Las Vegas and Will Burns has looked especially at one fight to make a profit from.
Thursday 7th July 2016
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 90
MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada.
DERRICK LEWIS (15-4) vs. ROY NELSON (22-12)
I am taking Roy Nelson to win this fight. Yes, compared to his opponent he looks out of shape. Yes, he has a worse record than his opponent. Yes, his opponent is nine years younger. BUT Nelson will win this fight and here’s why.
Derrick Lewis is on a great run in the cage winning his last three fights, however all three opponents have been poor. Back in October 2015, Viktor Pesta, Damian Grabowski and former title contender Gabriel Gonzaga.
Meanwhile, Nelson defeated Jared Rosholt in February to stop a three fight losing streak. Those three fights were against far superior fighters than Lewis has ever been in the cage with: Mark Hunt, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett. Lewis is not fighting at the same level as any of those guys.
Both of these men have pure knockout power and Nelson is the only fighter in UFC history to record his or her first seven victories with the federation by knockout. Either guy has the ability to finish each other early, but in the Lewis-Pesta fight, the young Czech fighter took Lewis down to the mat a total of three times in the opening round before tiring and losing. Nelson should look for the takedown and is a better fighter on the ground. We have also seen Lewis suffer a similar fate against Shawn Jordan.
Jordan defeated Lewis with a hook kick followed by some stiff fists in June 2015 but before this in the opening round, Jordan took Lewis down and gave him some strong ground and pound before the bell. For your information, Nelson has been training with Jordan ahead of this fight.
The veteran’s savvy and his ability to absorb blows better than Lewis will help him along the way and a Nelson victory is valued at 1.73 at Paddy Power, a price that has decreased from 2.20 within three days and this is a must bet in my opinion.
TIP: Nelson to win (1.73 at PaddyPower)
If you are looking to make a decent profit without the risk of the above bets – have a look below at our (less-risky) Banker!
Vicente Luque to win (1.22)
Anthony Birchak to win (1.36)
Joe Duffy to win (1.25)