This Saturday sees the UFC return to PPV (in America) and live on BT Sport for us here in the UK. Will Burns provides us with the best ways to make a profit from this bone-crushing card. Good luck if you are betting but please remember… Anything can happen in the cage!
Saturday 4th June 2016
The Forum, Inglewood, CA.
CLAY GUIDA (32-16) vs. BRIAN ORTEGA (10-0)
The energetic and charismatic Clay Guida is my all-time favourite fighter, but sadly I see him losing emphatically in this bout. At age 34, Guida’s career is on a downward slope while his opponent Brian Ortega, 25 years old, is a fighter on the up. Guida is a yo-yo fighter with a win-loss-win-loss formula however, his last fight was a quick tap-out to Thiago Tavares in just 39 seconds in Sao Paulo last November. When he wins, it can be a boring process that does works for him, with his last four wins coming via a decision after bouncing for a few minutes, hitting a few strikes then dominating the wrestling in the bouts.
Ortega’s last outing was a third-round submission win against former Ultimate Fighter winner Diego Brandao. Apart from a year out due to a suspension for anabolic steroid use, Ortega has won all ten fights of his career, winning four decisions, submitting five opponents and his only knock out being the aforementioned Thiago Tavares in June last year.
Guida does enjoy a takedown attempt and I feel shooting against Ortega could be his downfall. Ortega is an active grappler and will look to dominate himself on the ground and Guida may find himself choked out early on. Ortega to win is a short 1.36 with Bet365 however if you back him to win via KO, TKO, DQ or Submission you can grab a 1.83 with Bet365.
RICARDO LAMAS (16-4) vs. MAX HOLLOWAY (15-3)
In this striker vs. grappler match-up, I am all about Max Holloway in this fight. Fighting with a much higher pace along with his iron chin, Holloway can strike, grapple and go to the bell with three rounds without blowing himself up.
His opponent, the more experienced and older, Ricardo Lamas’ will possibly call on his collegiate wrestling background and try to take the rounds on points however, Holloway is in great form heading into this fight and has been on an absolute tear in recent years. The Hawaiian has racked up eight straight win and with six finishes in the process.
Lamas has a solid wrestling game but I think he’ll find a struggle getting down consistently with Holloway on the mat. Holloway’s feetwork could make that strategy incredibly difficult. Holloway definitely wins this fight in my opinion but to look for value, a win via decision gives us better odds then 1.30 for the straight win.
A Holloway win after three rounds is evens at Bet365 and that is my tip for this bout.
If you are looking to make a decent profit without the risk of the above two bets – have a look below at our (less-risky) Banker!
Brian Ortega to win
Hector Lombard to win
Max Holloway to win
Dustin Poirer to win